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Tuesday, June 11th, 2024

5 Reasons I’m Bullish on A.I. Sending More Traffic to Web Publishers


Hey fellow Web publishers (and AI doomers).

I’m bullish on A.I. sending more (not less) traffic to Web publishers. If you believe me, you can stop reading.

But if you’re an SEO doomer (e.g. someone worried about an eventual decline of Google traffic), read on!

There are 5 things I’m looking at right now that give me HUGE optimism:

1) Perplexity’s Early #s

Perplexity is the first to actively give links to Web Publishers with their answers and “Doulbe-Digit” percentage of Perplexity users click through to those links says Perplexity’s Chief Business Officer Dmitry Shevelenko (source)

Let’s call Perplexity’s number 30% to 40% for fun.

That’s about half of the 66% that click through to Google’s blue links (source)

2) ChatGPT, Claude et al Adding Links

I expect ChatGPT and Claude (more well-funded than Perplexity) to add more and more links to their search results.


Two reasons: A) they continue to strike licensing deals with publishers (News Corp, AP, People Mag, etc.) that involve link exchange; and B) they are threatened with lawsuits (NY Times) and that will make them compromise for the suitors and (eventually) smaller publishers.

Plus,the AI Answer Engines will work hard with Web Publishers because they want our data (to train LLMs).

3) An Explosion in A.I.-enabled Devices

And the devices we use to search the Web will only increase in the near future.

Smart Phone continues to grow 7.8% YoY (source)

And A.I. itself will allow explosive growth in Answer Engine queries via searches from such new devices such as Smart Glasses, watches and cars

4) A Lot More People on the Internet

33% of the world is still NOT on the Internet! (source)

5) An Explosion in A.I. Agents

Oh, and soon (if you believe Reid Hoffman and others (I do) about us all using A.I. agents, then in the next few years we will each will have a few A.I. agents searching the Web on our behalf).

That means that our A.I. agents will be searching the Web while we eat, sleep, have sex or whatever.

Google might see a decline in queries over the long haul.

But I’m bullish that the above will more than make up for it.

Thx for reading!

Rob Kelly. Content Creator on the Web

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Monday, December 30th, 2019

Happy New Year, Everyone!


I haven’t posted here for awhile so here’s a fun, little music video my son Maverick and I did this holiday season:

Here’s a link to the song (in case Youtube embed doesn’t work)

I think I’m a better writer than singer.

Have a fun and prosperous 2020, everyone!

ps: It’s a riff on the Bolinas Birthday Song.

Best, Rob

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Wednesday, October 18th, 2017

Topgrading for Dummies


If you value hiring better, I just posted an article called Topgrading for Dummies which outlines the 3 main criteria I use to hire A-Players and includes the structure of the Topgrading “Speed-Call” I do in 15 minutes to find the best talent. Here’s the article.



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Saturday, May 17th, 2014

The Network Effect


The network effect is defined as an entity getting more valuable the more people who use it. This can equate to a “winner-takes-all” position for businesses and a “moat”, as Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger like to say, to defend your castle (business).

Let’s look at a few examples of The Network Effect:


A key to Amazon’s success is that it:

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Saturday, April 5th, 2014

A Rule of Human Systems: Leadership Will Always “Pass the Baton”


Charlie Munger frequently emphasizes that anyone in a position of dominance will inevitably “pass the baton” of leadership.

Below are some examples Charlie has mentioned in talks:

Transcript from the 2003 Wesco Annual Meeting, May 7, 2003 *

“The loss of dominance rate is 100%. Every great civilization that was dominant eventually passed the baton. Similarly, the greatest companies of yore are not the great companies of hence. I like looking back and seeing who would have predicted what happened to [formerly great companies like] Kodak, Sears and General Motors.”

Transcript from Wesco Annual Meeting, May 6, 2009*

“Where is Egypt or Athens or London? It is nature of things that we do baton passing. It is state of nature that baton gets passed, to someone who tries harder and cares more.”

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Sunday, March 30th, 2014

The Law of Scale (the benefits are “Ungodly Important”)


In his epic commencement speech to the USC law school grads in 1994, Charlie Munger mentions “scale” 24 times.

The advantages of scale are “ungodly important”, he points out.

Benefits of Scale = Lower Costs, Higher Prices & Bets on New Markets

Benefits of scale include  reducing costs, raising prices and testing new markets.

In a beer business, for example, Anheuser-Busch operates at such a higher volume than Anchor Steam beer (based in San Francisco), that

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Sunday, March 23rd, 2014

The Law of Large Numbers (Another Mental Model)


The law of large numbers indicates that the higher the number of times something is performed, the more likely it will receive something close to the average of the results.

For example, if you rolled a six-sided die, the average results you can expect is the average of the 6 outcomes is a 3.5 ( (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/6. The law of large numbers indicates that your average roll will get closer and closer to 3.5 the more you roll the dice!

That’s why when you’re winning at a casino (or anywhere else where “the house” takes its cut), you should quit early — otherwise, the law of large numbers will eventually kick in: the more bets you make the closer you will get to netting a loss (since a casino is designed to have a greater than 50/50 edge over you).

But don’t fall victim

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Sunday, March 9th, 2014

The Mental Model of Incentives


Charlie Munger wrote in Poor Charlie’s Almanack:

“Perhaps the most important rule in management is to get the incentives right.” (see 30+ Charlie Munger Quotes).

Charlie argues that people respond most strongly to what they view as their incentive or disincentive.

In business, there is almost always someone else involved in whatever you are trying to do. Munger recommends that you always reflect on:

“What is someone getting out of this.”

Charlie gives a few business examples of incentive bias (source: Poor Charlie’s Almanack).


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